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Why I Started Backtesting
about 1 month ago by Dave Mabe @ Dave Mabe

I began serious trading in 2005. My first strategy was purely manual and an imitation of what a…The post Why I Started Backtesting first appeared on Dave Mabe.

Your Stop Loss Is Too Tight
about 1 month ago by Dave Mabe @ Dave Mabe

Here’s a note from a fellow reader replying to my post on backtesting without stops. (I always get…The post Your Stop Loss Is Too Tight first appeared on Dave Mabe.

The Important Step Most Traders Are Missing
2 months ago by Dave Mabe @ Dave Mabe

I work with more and more traders on creating their own “upward spiral” – a process unique to…The post The Important Step Most Traders Are Missing first appeared on Dave Mabe.

You Don’t Need a Perfect Idea – You Need a Process
2 months ago by Dave Mabe @ Dave Mabe

First, a quote: “It is amateurs who have one big bright beautiful idea that they can never abandon.…The post You Don’t Need a Perfect Idea – You Need a Process first appeared on Dave Mabe.

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"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"
about 6 hours ago by Calculated Risk @ Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates" A brief excerpt: Here is new working paper from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) staff Ross M. Batzer Jonah R. Coste William M. Doerner Michael J. Seiler quantifying the impact of the “lock-in effect”: The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates And here is their conclusion:This paper finds that for every percentage point that market mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1%. This mortgage rate lock-in led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in 2023Q4 and prevented 1.33 million sales between 2022Q2 and 2023Q4. The supply reduction increased home prices by 5.7%, outw...

Bearish engulfing pattern eats into Friday's Russell 2000 ($IWM) buying
about 6 hours ago by noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) @ Fallond Picks

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been defending its 50-day MA over the early part of 2024, but the last few days have seen a shift in this support with 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. The index is underperforming relative to the Nasdaq, but it has been a bit of a whipsaw scenario since early February. Buyers need to dig in soon because a loss of next support at the 50-day MA spells trouble and opens up for a test of the 200-day MA. <img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKdsTKlJQw7-3xTmjhQod0...

How Would YOU Rank the Magnificent 7 Stocks?
about 8 hours ago by StockCharts TV @ StockCharts.com YouTube Channel

Mar. 18, Final Bar host David Keller, CMT recaps the continued leadership rotation from growth to value, with SMCI breaking below $1000 and GOOGL dropping a shooting star candle on Monday's session. He walks through a process to compare and contrast the Magnificent 7 stocks, defining a clear "line in the sand" he's following on each chart. 👀 See what better financial charting can do for you! Start your FREE 1-month trial today at https://stockcharts.com 🧐 Dave's "Mindful Investor" ChartList is a powerful FREE resource https://schrts.co/TTCbWDpE 👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP. ✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe here: https://tinyurl.com/wvet7qj 00:00 - Welcome to the Show! 01:26 - Market Recap: Technology Sector Fund (XLK), Energy Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) 08:28 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX), S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX), Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index ($BPNDX) 12:3...

Netflix Stock (NFLX): Time for Return of Short Sellers? 
about 9 hours ago by Michele Schneider @ See It Market

Consumer instinct is a wonderful attribute to have and generally talked about on firms stocks to buy list. So, just what is the “Consumer Instinct”? (From my book, “Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth”) “Peter Lynch is one of the most famous investors in the world. A former manager of the Magellan […] The post Netflix Stock (NFLX): Time for Return of Short Sellers?  appeared first on See It Market.

10 Year Bond Yield Testing Key Resistance This Month!
about 9 hours ago by Chris Kimble @ See It Market

The 10-year treasury bond yield is very closely watched by banks, consumers, and active investors. It is used as a measuring stick for interest rates on loans, bond auctions, etc. When the 10-year treasury bond yield goes higher, so do interest rates on mortgages, personal loans, and car loans. And the government pays higher interest […] The post 10 Year Bond Yield Testing Key Resistance This Month! appeared first on See It Market.

Under The Hood (03-18-2024)
about 9 hours ago by Alfonso Depablos @ All Star Charts

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza. Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we’ll cover all the action for the two weeks ended March 15, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers. What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either […] The post Under The Hood (03-18-2024) appeared first on All Star Charts.

Pay Attention to Silver
about 9 hours ago by Ian Culley @ All Star Charts

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley Investors are finally waking up to Gold. Friends and family are blowing up my phone (and this time, it’s not just about baby pics). They’ve noticed gold’s rally to new highs – and they want to know whether to buy physical Gold or an ETF — bars or […] The post Pay Attention to Silver appeared first on All Star Charts.

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February
about 10 hours ago by Calculated Risk @ Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of February 29, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 110,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020. In February 2024, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 1 basis point to 0.12%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 1 basis point to 0.40%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 1 basis point to 0.29%. “The performance of servicing portfolios and lo...

How to Find New Shorting Opportunities
about 12 hours ago by StockCharts TV @ StockCharts.com YouTube Channel

March 18, Your Daily Five host Greg Harmon - Last weekend looked like a good time for continued or new shorting opportunities. However, everything that looked like it was a good set up for the short side has not been working at all. The first four stocks have been bouncing, and one has triggered. They're up on the day and the question then is, what do you as a trader? Well, you go back to the drawing board and start looking again. You need confirmation before you can trade anything. 👀 See what better financial charting can do for you! Start your FREE 1-month trial today at https://stockcharts.com 👍🏻 If you enjoyed this video be sure to hit the THUMBS UP ✅ If you found value, consider SUBSCRIBING to our channel and ring the bell so you never miss a new video! Subscribe Here: https://tinyurl.com/wvet7qj 00:00 Intro 01:26 Amgen (AMGN) 02:39 Airbnb (ABNB) 03:33 Cirrus Logic (CRUS) 04:33 NetApp (NTAP) 05:13 Uber (UBER) Connect with Greg https://dragonflycap.com https://twitter.com/ha...

LA Port Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in February
about 12 hours ago by Calculated Risk @ Calculated Risk

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihHGP-NQCP0urXca18vifR46fPV9OWTPuzJRmtgKICkbB7Te7V01vX9OEfTsUuF8pT6G2qpPKeyRyUvvxIpgyYQm3T5HavExIG8U_voS-Tm97czkYKwTDmb8jwZdZcYciLW_6ewSXiKI6Sl3j-FABEQCS7elnAoHfWLYqYlopdpT3P5cdnDq8/s1039/PortRollingFeb2024.PNG" style="margi...

Trading was hard until I understood these 3 things
about 13 hours ago by Michael Martin @ MartinKronicle

Watch this video on YouTube Man, when I started trading, I had all these preconceptions of what it was going to take for me to make it, and guess what? They were all wrong. I was wrong on every front. In fact, I had to flip them 180 degrees to make any sense out of […] The post Trading was hard until I understood these 3 things first appeared on MartinKronicle. The post Trading was hard until I understood these 3 things appeared first on MartinKronicle.

Monday links: the ultimate anecdote
about 13 hours ago by abnormalreturns @ Abnormal Returns

[Options] Reliance
about 13 hours ago by Sean McLaughlin @ All Star Charts

On today’s Flow Show, me and Steve Strazza put our heads together to follow the wave into the Steel sector. Sector trends are showing us where capital is flowing and that led us to a trade idea in steel manufacturing company Reliance Inc $RS. Here’s the chart highlighting a high consolidation that often portends to […] The post [Options] Reliance appeared first on All Star Charts.

Breaking Bad Momentum Trends
about 15 hours ago by Larry Swedroe - via Alpha Architect Blog @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

While average time-series momentum (trend following) returns have been high, strategies employing trend following have also experienced huge drawdowns (crashes) at turning points (which mark reversals in trend from uptrend to downtrend or vice versa).

Trading the Post-Witching and Pre-Fed Rebound 
about 15 hours ago by Bill Baruch @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are snapping back from pre-expiration selling Friday morning and an unenthusiastic weekly close.